13.01.2026 - Cubs blow $175 million on an average bat. Will this deal cost them five years of competitiveness?
The Chicago Cubs have committed five years and $175 million to Alex Bregman, a move that looks bold on the surface and increasingly questionable the deeper you dig. Bregman’s reputation is built on elite seasons in the late 2010s, but the numbers suggest that version of the player no longer exists.
To cut through volume and reputation, we can look at Total Bases Obtained per game (TBO9), a rate metric that captures how much offensive value a hitter produces per plate appearance.
To calculate TBO9, hits are broken down properly, with singles defined as H minus 2B minus 3B minus HR, ensuring that each type of hit is weighted accurately. The full calculation is:
TBO9 = ((TB + BB + SB) / PA) × 4.5
This framing allows us to compare players across seasons without being misled by playing time or counting stats. When Bregman’s career is viewed through this lens, the picture is stark: his peak years are firmly in the past, and what the Cubs are paying for now is a bat that sits much closer to league average than to the star-level production his contract implies.
Using 2.016 as the league-average TBO9 for 2025, we can evaluate Bregman’s baseline offensive output year by year — and ask the uncomfortable question at the heart of this deal: are the Cubs paying elite money for yesterday’s player, and in doing so, risking five years of competitive stagnation?
Using 2.016 as the league-average TBO9 for 2025, Bregman’s career arc becomes difficult to ignore. His early seasons showed steady growth, but his true breakout came in 2018 and 2019, when he was operating well above the league baseline. Those were the years that made him a franchise cornerstone in Houston and established the offensive reputation that still follows him today.
Since then, the trend has been unmistakable. From 2021 onward, Bregman’s yearly production has compressed tightly around league average. There are no sharp drops, but there are no meaningful surges either. The profile shifts from impact bat to stabilising presence — a player whose value comes from avoiding collapse rather than driving offense.
The 2025 season, often cited as evidence that Bregman still has another gear, looks less impressive when placed against the league reference point. Yes, it represents a modest rebound from 2024, but it remains far closer to average than to elite. At age 31, rebounds tend to be the exception rather than the rule, and history suggests that players at this stage are far more likely to flatten out than rediscover a lost peak.
That context matters for a contract of this size. The Cubs are not paying for the decline phase to begin; they are paying for it to already be underway. Once a hitter’s baseline production settles near league average, even a small age-related drop turns an acceptable contract into a liability. There is very little margin for error when the offensive floor is already so close to the baseline.
Over the next five years, the most realistic outcome is not a sudden collapse, but a gradual erosion. Bregman’s offensive output is likely to hover around league average, or slip slightly below it, while his salary remains fixed at a level usually reserved for middle-of-the-order difference-makers. That imbalance is where long contracts quietly do their damage.
If that scenario plays out, the Cubs will find themselves carrying a very expensive anchor in the middle of their roster — a player who still plays every day, still looks the part, but no longer moves the needle. In a league where marginal gains often separate contenders from also-rans, committing that level of payroll to average production risks more than just inefficiency. It risks five years of treading water while better-constructed teams pull away.
The question for Chicago is not whether Alex Bregman can still play. It’s whether paying elite money for average output is a luxury a club trying to become truly competitive can afford.